11913 Melissa Dr

Alton, TX 78573

$115,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,068/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-127/mo
• Annual: $-1,519/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Raquel Cavazos El (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 554 students, 87% FRL); Alton Memorial J H (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 819 students, 91% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.6% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?