168 Bush Rd

Alma, GA 31510

$159,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,288/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $54/mo
• Annual: $649/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($649/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $711 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#530 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Bacon County (rural): math 48% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #43 of 174 in GA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bacon County Primary School (571 students, 90% FRL); Bacon County Middle School (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 465 students, 78% FRL); Bacon County High School (math 32% / reading 8%, grade F, #238 of 424 statewide, top 57%, 641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 58% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bacon County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP.
• Bacon County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.