2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
784 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Manufactured
· Active
· 297 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,510/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$467
Tax + insurance
−$123
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$317
Net cashflow
$603/mo
Annual
$7,238/yr
Cap rate
14.43%
Cash-on-cash
29.04%
DSCR
2.29
1% rule
1.70%
Cash to close
$24,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: J Michael Conley Elementary School At Southwood (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 657 students, 47% FRL); Fairview Middle School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 747 students, 58% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $12k; list at $89k implies a 612% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VVZ92D56AQ1F2Z
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29