217 N Tracy Rd

Sunsites, AZ 85625

$128,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 1972 · Townhouse · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $302/mo
• Annual: $3,629/yr
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.05%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $36,092

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $891 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Valley Union High School District (4190) (rural): math -3% / reading -3% proficiency, ranked #498 of 501 in AZ (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Union High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 106 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $100k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.3% in Sunsites — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.