5212 San Antonio Ave

Midland, TX 79707

$289,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-167/mo
• Annual: $-2,009/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greathouse El (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 905 students, 32% FRL); Abell J H (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,095 students, 46% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.