The Birch Plan

Courtland, MI 49341

$239,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 1004 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,120/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,362
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-120/mo
• Annual: $-1,435/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $72,697

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cedar Springs Public Schools (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #175 of 540 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Trails Elementary School (495 students, 49% FRL); Cedar Springs Middle School (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #202 of 493 statewide, top 42%, 489 students, 48% FRL); Cedar Springs High School (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C-, #125 of 713 statewide, top 18%, 1,049 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 398 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,253 units permitted in Kent County in 2024 (969 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kent County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.0% in Courtland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.