9860 S Thomas Dr #1516

Panama City Beach, FL 32408

$254,000F

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Active · 244 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,855/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$770
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-1,024/mo
• Annual: $-12,287/yr
• Cap rate: 1.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.28%
• DSCR: 0.23
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $71,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1034 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $205k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?