365 Half Moon Ln #12

Daly City, CA 94015

$498,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,048 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,612
• Tax + insurance: −$569
• HOA: −$571
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$802
• Net cashflow: $-735/mo
• Annual: $-8,821/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $139,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $498k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-735 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $382k (23.3% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $368k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in CA, #1,221 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South San Francisco Unified (urban): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #176 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Junipero Serra Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #496 of 1,571 statewide, top 34%, 291 students, 27% FRL); Alta Loma Middle (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #170 of 498 statewide, top 35%, 628 students, 34% FRL); El Camino High (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,173 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.1% in Daly City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.