34 Sugarloaf Ter

Alamo, CA 94507

$1,999,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,465 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,735/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,488
• Tax + insurance: −$2,027
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,044
• Net cashflow: $-4,824/mo
• Annual: $-57,884/yr
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.34%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $559,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-58k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.15M (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $974k (51.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $974k (51.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#94 in CA, #3,479 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Alamo Elementary (336 students, 6% FRL); Stone Valley Middle (580 students, 4% FRL); Monte Vista High (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #66 of 1,170 statewide, top 6%, 2,243 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.00M; list at $2.00M implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 1.0% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.