610 Lavaca Loop

Elgin, TX 78621

$273,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax + insurance: −$686
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-468/mo
• Annual: $-5,618/yr
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.35%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $76,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (30.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (22.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $190k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.