414 Hawthorn St

Frederick, CO 80530

$479,900D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,019 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,754/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-116/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $134,372

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-116/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $478k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $375k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thunder Valley Pk-8 (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #781 of 966 statewide, top 82%, 832 students, 57% FRL); Coal Ridge Middle School (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 800 students, 32% FRL); Frederick Senior High School (math 21% / reading 53%, grade F, #196 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,412 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Frederick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.