164 Dare Rd

Selden, NY 11784

$525,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$877
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$861
• Net cashflow: $-392/mo
• Annual: $-4,708/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $456k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $410k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#637 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Lane Memorial Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 789 students, 44% FRL); Selden Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 1,058 students, 37% FRL); Newfield High School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A-, #583 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 1,559 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $525k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Selden — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.