208 Victoria Way

Grayson, KY 41143

$119,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-341/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-341/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $119k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.