21-66 33rd Rd Unit 12B

New York, NY 11106

$575,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · Built 1950 · Condo · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$958
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,192
• Net cashflow: $510/mo
• Annual: $6,117/yr
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $575k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $568k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $566k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $161k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,675/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 3679% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.