8056 Fir Tree Dr

East Milton, FL 32583

$314,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,541/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$51
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-220/mo
• Annual: $-2,637/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Milton Elementary School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 789 students, 75% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 36% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.