1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
268 sqft ·
Built 1961
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 183 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,298/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$577
Tax + insurance
−$158
HOA
−$157
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$273
Net cashflow
$134/mo
Annual
$1,605/yr
Cap rate
7.75%
Cash-on-cash
5.21%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
1.18%
Cash to close
$30,800
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#584 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Chocachatti Elementary School (math 77% / reading 74%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 783 students, 38% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL); Nature Coast Technical High (math 52% / reading 51%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,298 students, 38% FRL).
Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.9% in South Brooksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VY732F22B7Z55B
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29