1124 Bluegrass Dr

Groveland, FL 34736

$295,500D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,942 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,256/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,550
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$36
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-568/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $82,740

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-568/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#416 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A-, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 593 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $296k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Groveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.