119 Hillside Dr

Central, TN 37601

$99,999B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Pending · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,431/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $542/mo
• Annual: $6,500/yr
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.22%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#362 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carter County (suburban): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #119 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 286 students, 0% FRL); Happy Valley Middle School (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #211 of 333 statewide, top 64%, 369 students, 0% FRL); Happy Valley High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #183 of 332 statewide, top 59%, 446 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $83k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.