3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,270 sqft ·
Built 2007
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 64 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,838/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$306
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$386
Net cashflow
$-349/mo
Annual
$-4,186/yr
Cap rate
4.82%
Cash-on-cash
-5.25%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.64%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (21.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (35.5% below list).
It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Maude Saunders Elementary School (math 58% / reading 52%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 553 students, 87% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL).
Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VYMFDW7BXEAM7Q
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29