119 N Kanaio Dr

Bastrop, TX 78602

$495,000D

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · Built 2018 · MultiFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,978/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$825
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$835
• Net cashflow: $-278/mo
• Annual: $-3,339/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $495k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-139/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $455k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $398k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#947 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emile El (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 803 students, 66% FRL); Bastrop Middle (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 929 students, 80% FRL); Bastrop H S (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,621 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1074 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Bastrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,978/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 775% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?