3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,053 sqft ·
Built 1975
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,930/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$405
Net cashflow
$140/mo
Annual
$1,679/yr
Cap rate
7.07%
Cash-on-cash
2.79%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$60,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (10.2% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $193k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#247 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $60k; list at $215k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.3% in Old Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VZ6ME59BG20203
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29