2516 Pine Ave

Mattoon, IL 61938

$39,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,110 sqft · Built 1907 · SingleFamily · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $350/mo
• Annual: $4,199/yr
• Cap rate: 17.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.46%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 2.27%
• Cash to close: $10,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($885 rent vs $39k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#706 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Mattoon CUSD 2 (town): math 13% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #462 of 620 in IL (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Coles County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coles County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.6% in Mattoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.