1634 Baseline Ln

Gifford, FL 32967

$399,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,271 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$716
• HOA: −$533
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$856
• Net cashflow: $-122/mo
• Annual: $-1,465/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (5.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $377k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#538 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, employment F.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $326k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Gifford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,076/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 674% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.