121/115 Kelder Hwy

Accord, NY 12461

$558,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,926
• Tax + insurance: −$632
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $234/mo
• Annual: $2,803/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $156,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $558k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (14.0% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($508k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $480k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#638 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; list at $558k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $156k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Accord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.