4506 John St

Suffolk, VA 23439

$329,897D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-327/mo
• Annual: $-3,927/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $92,371

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (32.6% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Florence Bowser Elementary (math 52% / reading 75%, grade B, #460 of 1,108 statewide, top 42%, 831 students, 64% FRL); John Yeates Middle (math 60% / reading 83%, grade A, #72 of 342 statewide, top 22%, 506 students, 64% FRL); Nansemond River High (math 44% / reading 87%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,698 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $176k; list at $330k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.