3302 Evergreen Rd #1715

Zellwood, FL 32798

$150,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Pending · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$248
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-111/mo
• Annual: $-1,335/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#248 in FL, #3,918 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, health & safety D-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zellwood Elementary (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 493 students, 55% FRL); Wolf Lake Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,194 students, 45% FRL); Apopka High (math 19% / reading 47%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 3,507 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $150k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.