3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1925
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,628/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$313
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$342
Net cashflow
$318/mo
Annual
$3,814/yr
Cap rate
9.34%
Cash-on-cash
10.90%
DSCR
1.48
1% rule
1.30%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Calvin M. Rodwell Elementary/Middle (math 0% / reading 9%, grade F, #803 of 860 statewide, top 94%, 841 students, 75% FRL); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $29k; list at $125k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W1VVFBEGW5FB9H
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29