51 Federal Ct #51

Smithville, NJ 08205-3604

$174,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,008/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$164
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $214/mo
• Annual: $2,566/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#402 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #319 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smithville Elementary School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #721 of 1,303 statewide, top 56%, 573 students, 44% FRL); Galloway Township Middle School (math 19% / reading 47%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 726 students, 47% FRL); Absegami High School (math 18% / reading 48%, grade F, #259 of 399 statewide, top 66%, 1,125 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — Worn condition
• Minor: bathroom tiles — Slight discoloration