2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
748 sqft ·
Built 1996
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 104 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$695/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$274
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$146
Net cashflow
$-931/mo
Annual
$-11,171/yr
Cap rate
1.43%
Cash-on-cash
-17.35%
DSCR
0.23
1% rule
0.30%
Cash to close
$64,372
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-931 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $65k (71.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $70k (69.8% below list).
It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $65k (71.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,387 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W202E94K4Q3NPW
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29