416 Sullivan St

Blackstone, VA 23824

$89,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 669 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $422/mo
• Annual: $5,060/yr
• Cap rate: 11.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.30%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nottoway County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #109 of 131 in VA (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Nottoway County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nottoway County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $89k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 21% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.0% in Blackstone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.