1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
672 sqft ·
Built 1969
· Manufactured
· Active
· 232 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,329/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$545
Tax + insurance
−$92
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$279
Net cashflow
$413/mo
Annual
$4,953/yr
Cap rate
11.06%
Cash-on-cash
17.01%
DSCR
1.76
1% rule
1.28%
Cash to close
$29,120
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $104k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 448 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $75k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.7% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W2N6ZJ3JJZS7G5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29