432 Sun Valley Ter

Hazard, KY 41701

$149,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Built 1964 · Other · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $213/mo
• Annual: $2,558/yr
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (1.2% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazard Independent (town): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy G. Eversole Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 458 students, 58% FRL); Hazard Middle School (math 29% / reading 55%, grade D-, #50 of 217 statewide, top 23%, 295 students, 57% FRL); Hazard High School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 277 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $118k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.