24-51 38th St Unit A4

New York, NY 11103

$650,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 530 sqft · Built 1929 · Condo · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,083
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$996
• Net cashflow: $-744/mo
• Annual: $-8,923/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-744 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $542k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $474k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$80k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,745/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 2848% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.