3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,617 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Condo
· Active
· 288 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,650/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,071
Tax + insurance
−$658
HOA
−$95
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$556
Net cashflow
$-731/mo
Annual
$-8,775/yr
Cap rate
4.07%
Cash-on-cash
-7.93%
DSCR
0.65
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$110,597
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $395k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-731 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (23.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (32.9% below list).
It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $265k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#108 in VA, #3,369 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-W46C4P0DD7CSA4
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29