12202 Lookout Loop Unit F20-22

Truckee, CA 96160

$18,000C-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,470 sqft · Built — · Timeshare · Active · 347 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,061/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax + insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$769
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,903
• Net cashflow: $6,265/mo
• Annual: $75,178/yr
• Cap rate: 423.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 1491.62%
• DSCR: 67.37
• 1% rule: 50.34%
• Cash to close: $5,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath timeshare listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($75k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $16k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $664 of equity ($124 loan paydown + $540 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $18k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 423.9% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.