2895 Turner Church Rd

McDonough, GA 30252

$215,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,173/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $198/mo
• Annual: $2,372/yr
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#279 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Ridge Elementary School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #327 of 1,228 statewide, top 27%, 761 students, 32% FRL); Union Grove Middle (math 44% / reading 52%, grade C-, #80 of 470 statewide, top 17%, 1,069 students, 32% FRL); Union Grove High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,648 students, 24% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Henry County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9673% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $158k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.9% in McDonough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.