1801 Rolling Ridge Dr

Grapevine, TX 76051

$460,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,559 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,573/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$927
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$750
• Net cashflow: $-517/mo
• Annual: $-6,203/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $128,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-517 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $357k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#14 in TX, #1,085 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, amenities A-; Watch: cost of living D+, commute D.
• Grapevine-Colleyville ISD (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #59 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Grapevine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.