3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,100 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$959/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$364
Tax + insurance
−$65
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$201
Net cashflow
$328/mo
Annual
$3,934/yr
Cap rate
11.95%
Cash-on-cash
20.22%
DSCR
1.90
1% rule
1.38%
Cash to close
$19,460
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($959 rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($481 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 53/100 on livability (#388 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, schools F.
Caldwell Parish (rural): math 17% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #59 of 98 in LA (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Caldwell Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caldwell County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W5H83667ANFJMX
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29