9409 Wheelers Church Rd

Hillsborough, NC 27541

$335,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,859/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $260/mo
• Annual: $3,121/yr
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (14.7% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in NC, #1,408 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Orange County Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #108 of 178 in NC (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gravelly Hill Middle (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #343 of 475 statewide, top 73%, 425 students, 54% FRL); Orange High (math 63% / reading 58%, grade C+, #210 of 535 statewide, top 40%, 1,341 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.8% in Hillsborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.