924 Mill Road Ln

Port Orange, FL 32127

$290,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,361 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,477/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-746/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-746/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $248k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#131 in FL, #1,957 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D+, commute D+.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spruce Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 64%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 785 students, 51% FRL); Creekside Middle School (math 66% / reading 62%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 1,222 students, 39% FRL); Spruce Creek High School (math 37% / reading 61%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,569 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Volusia average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 955% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.