2627 Thornbrier Ct Unit 3D

Auburn Hills, MI 48430

$115,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,393/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,131/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (11.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Webber School (math 70% / reading 76%, grade A, #50 of 1,397 statewide, top 4%, 518 students, 20% FRL); Waldon Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 547 students, 26% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?