5442 Woodland Dr

Mauriceville, TX 77632

$165,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 288 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,413/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-282/yr
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-282/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#575 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Cypress-Mauriceville CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mauriceville El (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 571 students, 62% FRL); Mauriceville Middle (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 292 students, 49% FRL); Lit Cypr-Mrceville H S (math 27% / reading 49%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,014 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.