2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,074 sqft ·
Built 1987
· Condo
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,873/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$939
Tax + insurance
−$310
HOA
−$322
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$393
Net cashflow
$-91/mo
Annual
$-1,094/yr
Cap rate
5.68%
Cash-on-cash
-2.18%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$50,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $179k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (9.0% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mayport Elementary School (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C+, #751 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 436 students, 44% FRL); Mayport Middle School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C+, #213 of 571 statewide, top 38%, 833 students, 36% FRL); Duncan U. Fletcher High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 2,067 students, 26% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W6YZR12X4HAGHT
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29