521 Mrtn King Jr

Ewing, NJ 08618

$188,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1950 · Townhouse · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $918/mo
• Annual: $11,016/yr
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.93%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $52,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $188k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $188k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ewing Township School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #358 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Francis Lore Elementary School (math 13% / reading 41%, grade F, #795 of 1,303 statewide, top 64%, 511 students, 38% FRL); Gilmore J Fisher Middle School (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #335 of 431 statewide, top 79%, 791 students, 50% FRL); Ewing High School (math 21% / reading 46%, grade F, #251 of 399 statewide, top 64%, 1,109 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $188k implies a 382% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,807/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: basement — Exposed concrete and visible structural issues
• Major: basement ceiling — Exposed beams and visible structural issues
• Major: basement walls — Exposed concrete and visible structural issues