4 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,060 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 202 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,144/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,544
Tax + insurance
−$393
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$450
Net cashflow
$-244/mo
Annual
$-2,928/yr
Cap rate
5.30%
Cash-on-cash
-3.55%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$82,460
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (14.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (27.2% below list).
It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $214k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Brandon Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #11 of 375 statewide, top 3%, 741 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W7XQ321JXFH5R1
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29