3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,352 sqft ·
Built —
· Manufactured
· Active
· 187 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,425/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$624
Tax + insurance
−$198
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$299
Net cashflow
$304/mo
Annual
$3,643/yr
Cap rate
9.35%
Cash-on-cash
10.93%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$33,319
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $822 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#26 in TX, #1,492 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
Pflugerville ISD (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #421 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Springhill El (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 500 students, 66% FRL); Pflugerville Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 815 students, 56% FRL); Pflugerville H S (math 39% / reading 49%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,814 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1246 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.8% in Pflugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-W881QMA4N9SC22
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29