1403 Commanche St

Pascagoula, MS 39581

$96,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax + insurance: −$595
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-581/yr
• Cap rate: 11.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.88%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $26,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-581/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $87k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $664 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.2% in Pascagoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($38k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.