415 Devon St

Mobile, AL 36617

$234,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,497 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,884/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $60/mo
• Annual: $721/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $65,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($721/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Holloway Elementary (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #554 of 627 statewide, top 88%, 498 students, 98% FRL); Booker T Washington Middle School (math 0% / reading 12%, grade F, #252 of 257 statewide, top 98%, 340 students, 95% FRL); John L Leflore Magnet School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 618 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 67% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 7% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $234k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.