3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,468 sqft ·
Built 1988
· Condo
· Active
· 248 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,587/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,048
Tax + insurance
−$333
HOA
−$752
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$543
Net cashflow
$-89/mo
Annual
$-1,073/yr
Cap rate
5.76%
Cash-on-cash
-1.92%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
1.29%
Cash to close
$55,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.5% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#140 in FL, #2,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bessey Creek Elementary School (math 78% / reading 78%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 562 students, 28% FRL); Hidden Oaks Middle School (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A, #33 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 940 students, 23% FRL); Martin County High School (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,273 students, 42% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Martin average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Palm City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: ceiling fan in living room
— light fixture appears loose
Minor: ceiling fan in dining room
— light fixture appears loose
CashFlowRE · CFR-W9W0EEDFD5RK7N
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29