13861 Timberview Dr

Utica, MI 48315

$485,000C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,891 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$599
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,040
• Net cashflow: $768/mo
• Annual: $9,213/yr
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $485k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($478k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $478k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#106 in MI, #2,586 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, employment D.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.